Yield predictions from USDA
Government officials have updated official predictions on what many already know to be the worst yield on the farm in recent memory. In Missouri, home of MFA Incorporated and Today's Farmer, the numbers are sobering. As of Aug. 1, USDA-NASS is forecasting the lowest yields in years for corn and soybeans, which account for over 90 percent of the row crop acres planted in the state.
Missouri corn yield is forecast at 75 bushels per acres, the lowest since the drought year 1983 when the yield was 51. Currently corn in Missouri can typically be expected to yield about 140 bushels per acre. Corn planted acres are estimated at 3.6 million acres, unchanged from the June 1 estimate, and the largest acreage planted since 1960. Acres harvested for grain are forecast at 3.35 million acres, a reduction of 50 thousand acres from the June 1 estimate. The resulting production for the state is 251 million bushels. If realized, this production would be the lowest since 1999 and 99 million bushels below last year’s production.
Soybean yield in Missouri is estimated at 30 bushels per acre, the lowest since 2003. Planted acres are unchanged from the June forecast at 5.3 million acres. Harvested acres are ex-pected to total 5.15 million acres, 50,000 acres below last year and 100,000 lower than the June 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 155 million bushels, 19 percent below last year and the smallest since 2003.
The total area of all hay to be harvested in Missouri is forecast at 3.65 million acres, 100,000 acres below last year and the smallest since 1997. Harvested acres of alfalfa are forecast at 250,000 acres and are expected to produce 500,000 tons with a yield of 2.00 tons per acre, the lowest since 1955. Other hay harvested acres are forecast at 3.40 million acres. Production of other hay is forecast at 4.76 million tons with a yield of 1.40 tons per acre, the lowest since 1988.
Cotton planted acres in Missouri are estimated at 375,000 acres, the same as last year. Producers expect to harvest 355,000 acres. A yield of 913 pounds per acre is forecast, 56 pounds per acre below last year. The resulting 675,000 480-pound bales would be 66,000 bales below last year.
Planted acres of Missouri rice are estimated at 201,000 acres, an in-crease of 58,000 from 2011. Harvested acres are forecast at 199,000 acres, 71,000 above last year. A yield of 6,700 pounds per acre is forecast, 210 pounds per acre above 2011. If realized, this would result in a production of 13.3 million hundredweight.
Planted acres of sorghum in Missouri are estimated at 70,000 acres, 30,000 above 2011. Sor-ghum acres to be harvested for grain are forecast at 60,000 acres, up 27,000 acres from last year. A drought reduced yield of 55 bushels per acre, the lowest since 1980, is forecast. Pro-duction of 3.3 million bushels is expected, still above last year’s 2.4 million bushels due to the large increase in acreage.
U.S. Highlights
Corn production is forecast at 10.8 billion bushels, down 13 percent from 2011 and the lowest production since 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are ex-pected to average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 23.8 bushels from 2011. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, down 2 percent from the June forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 36.1 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bush-els from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June but up 1 percent from 2011.